An early analysis of the H1N1 swine-associated flu virus outbreak suggests that the virus spreads at a rate comparable to that of previous influenza pandemics.
The results, published online today by Science and compiled by the World Health Organization Rapid Pandemic Assessment Collaboration, support the designation of swine flu as a pandemic but also indicate that the fatality rates thus far are lower than those seen during the 1918 flu outbreak or those anticipated from an avian influenza pandemic. “It’s a virus that almost certainly will cause a global epidemic,” says study author Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London. “But it’s not the catastrophic scenario people were fearing for bird flu.”
